Chapter 1: Overview of AI Developments

Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to be a topic of significant interest and debate. As we step into 2019, we can anticipate advancements in AI safety, progress towards achieving "general" intelligence, and the ongoing evolution of both beneficial and detrimental applications of AI.

The fascination with AI has persisted since the mid-20th century, raising questions about its potential to transform society—replacing jobs, relationships, and even aspects of human cognition. Will these changes ultimately benefit us, or will we find ourselves akin to the characters in WALL-E, overly dependent on technology?

According to data from Google Trends, interest in AI has been steadily increasing, reflecting a consistent curiosity that is less volatile than other tech trends, such as Bitcoin.

One significant reason for this growing interest is the surge in companies producing research papers related to AI, which saw a 73 percent increase in 2018. Nearly half of all organizations have begun to incorporate some form of AI into their operations.

However, 2019 is not the year when we will achieve a breakthrough. While we are expected to make substantial headway towards general intelligence—where machines can learn, communicate, and act like humans—we will also see a rise in specialized AI applications capable of outperforming humans in specific tasks.

Chapter 2: The Path to 2030

Before dismissing the prospect of a decade as too far off, consider your life in 2030. What changes might you see in your personal and professional life?

The Pew Research Center recently engaged nearly 1,000 tech leaders and innovators in a discussion about the implications of AI for humanity over the next decade. Many experts anticipate that by 2030, we will be on the brink of achieving artificial general intelligence, though some remain skeptical about our proximity to this goal.

Here are some key takeaways from their insights:

Section 2.2: Mitigating the Risks

To counter these potential pitfalls, experts suggest several strategies:

• Fostering Empathy in AI Development: By establishing ethical frameworks that prioritize inclusivity and empathy, stakeholders can guide AI development in a positive direction.

• Educating Future Generations: It’s crucial to integrate AI ethics into educational curricula, ensuring that students understand the moral implications of technology.
• Enhancing Human Capabilities: As AI continues to evolve, society must focus on augmenting human intelligence and capabilities to remain relevant.

Chapter 3: Current Trends in AI Safety

One notable trend for 2019 is the anticipated increase in professionals dedicated to AI safety. Currently, only around 50 individuals are employed full-time in this field. This number is expected to grow as ethical considerations become more prominent in AI development.

With more funding directed towards AI research and the ongoing competition between global powers, there will likely be a heightened focus on ethical practices and safety measures.

Chapter 4: The Quest for General Intelligence

While we may not see robots surpassing human capabilities this year, advancements towards artificial general intelligence are on the horizon. General AI refers to machines that can learn and think similarly to humans.

Currently, we categorize AI into three levels:

1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI): These systems excel at specific tasks but lack broader cognitive abilities.
2. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): This level implies machines can think and learn like humans, potentially achieving a form of sentience.
3. Artificial Superintelligence (ASI): This is the hypothetical stage where AI surpasses human intelligence entirely.

To approach AGI, machines require immense computational power, and while supercomputers are making strides, we are still a way off from achieving true AGI.

Chapter 5: Conclusion and Future Outlook

As we look toward the future, the interplay between AI advancements and societal implications will become increasingly critical. The balance between leveraging technology for improved living standards and ensuring ethical development will define the trajectory of AI.

The ongoing discussions and developments in AI ethics, safety, and capabilities will shape a future where technology can coexist harmoniously with humanity.

For those interested in further discussions or insights, feel free to reach out: [email protected].

Special thanks to AI expert Alex Barbato for contributing to this exploration.

Josh Strupp is a marketing director at ISL. Here's his website.