NASA's Strong Reaction

The most vehement criticism came from Jim Bridenstine, the NASA administrator, during an open question-and-answer session with staff. He deemed the missile test and the resultant debris field "unacceptable," emphasizing that "NASA must clearly articulate its impact on our operations." He warned that allowing the creation of orbital debris poses a risk to human safety and that such actions are unsustainable in the context of human spaceflight.

Bridenstine clarified that recent assessments indicated a 44 percent increase in the risk of small debris impacting the International Space Station (ISS) following the test. This was in contrast to earlier statements from Lieutenant General David Thompson, who had downplayed the immediate risk to the ISS. NASA has identified approximately 400 pieces of debris resulting from the test, with around 60 fragments large enough to be tracked actively.

Understanding the 44 Percent Risk Increase

What does this "44 percent increase in risk" signify? The calculation of this figure and its implications for ISS astronauts remain somewhat unclear. According to Raymond Sedwick, an aerospace engineer from the University of Maryland, assessing debris threats is complex due to the lack of precise knowledge regarding the objects in orbit. Operational satellites are tracked by their operators, while defunct satellites and debris are monitored by the Air Force, often leading to broad estimations of their locations.

Sedwick explains, "If your estimate of the velocity is inaccurate, the object will deviate from expected paths." Even minor errors can accumulate over time, making precise tracking challenging. This uncertainty means that the risks posed to the ISS can fluctuate based on the location of space debris and the potential for close encounters.

NASA's response to the test underscores this uncertainty. The increased number of debris objects following India's test could lead to more potential threats to the ISS, especially as some fragments were projected to enter the ISS's orbital range over time.

The first video titled "2019 India Anti-Satellite Test First Look" provides an overview of the test and its implications.

Concerns Over Future Anti-Satellite Tests

Bridenstine highlighted that 24 of the trackable debris objects were located beyond the ISS's apogee, meaning they could pose a significant threat in the future as they are gradually pulled closer by gravity. He stated, "Creating an event that generates debris above the ISS is troubling."

Although the situation is concerning, the risk to the ISS is not considered imminent. Bridenstine mentioned that the debris would eventually dissipate in LEO, though the situation pales in comparison to the ramifications of the 2007 Chinese anti-satellite test, which produced around 4,000 trackable fragments and increased the orbital debris catalog by 36 percent.

The Unseen Threat of Orbital Debris

The ISS is equipped with shielding designed to protect against smaller debris, but larger, untracked pieces pose a significant risk. Anything exceeding a marble’s size could breach the station’s defenses, potentially endangering astronauts on spacewalks.

Bridenstine and other officials fear that India's test may set a precedent, prompting other nations to pursue similar capabilities, escalating an arms race in space. This concern is compounded by the historical context; the U.S. and Russia have engaged in anti-satellite tests since the Cold War, with the U.S. conducting a notable test in 2008.

Future Strategies for Space Debris Management

Currently, there is no active remediation strategy for orbital debris, although efforts are underway to enhance tracking capabilities. The upcoming Space Fence system will allow the U.S. to monitor hundreds of thousands of smaller debris fragments.

However, awareness alone is insufficient. Experts like Sedwick propose innovative solutions, such as using spray paint to disable satellites without creating additional debris, or even conceptualizing space debris collectors, although such ideas remain largely theoretical.

In conclusion, urgent action is needed to address the growing issue of orbital debris before space becomes cluttered and unsafe for future missions.

The second video titled "2019 Indian Anti-Satellite Weapon Test - 3/28/2019 Update" discusses the implications and updates following India's anti-satellite missile test.